OA
Journal of Women's Health Research & Reviews
Estimating the Remaining Lifetime Risk of Colorectal Cancer Based on the Current Age and Screening History
Authors: Dongfeng Wu*
Publication Year: 2026
Abstract
The remaining lifetime risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) for both males and females was estimated according to an individual’s current age and screening history using a recently developed probability-based method and data from the annual screening cohort of the Minnesota Colon Cancer Control Study (MCCCS). The remaining lifetime risk is determined by three key parameters: the screening sensitivity, the transition probability density from the disease-free state to the preclinical state, and the sojourn time in the preclinical state. These parameters were estimated from the MCCCS data and subsequently incorporated into the probability model to calculate the remaining lifetime risk of CRC. The results show that, before age 44, males have a higher remaining lifetime risk of CRC than females of the same age. However, this pattern reverses after age 45, with females exhibiting a higher remaining lifetime risk. Overall, the remaining lifetime risk declines gradually with increasing age in both genders. The clinical incidence of CRC reaches its peak at age 74 in males and age 80 in females.